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Kitzbuhel vs TSV St. Johann Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - West

West - 32 ·Thursday, June 4, 2026, 12:30

Kitzbuhel

PPG 1.64 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

TSV St. Johann

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-17.4%0-24.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.0%1-111.8%1-26.9%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.4%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.2%3-15.0%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.8%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.8% 36.4% 2.75 +17.7%

Draw 23.3% 28.6% 3.50 -11.1%

Away win 34.0% 47.6% 2.10 -28.6%

Over 2.5 60.7% 63.7% 1.57 -4.7%

Over 3.5 36.6% 42.0% 2.38 -12.9%

BTTS 56.0% 66.7% 1.50 -16.0%

Home O1.5 52.4% 46.5% 2.15 +12.7%

Away O1.5 32.0% 53.5% 1.87 -40.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob56.0%

H 43% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 10.0%

#4 0–0✓ 6.3%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kitzbuhel1.6

TSV St. Johann1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KITZBUHEL · PPG 1.64

TSV ST. JOHANN · PPG 0.85

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.64) > Away POOR (0.85)

Win probability 1X2

Kitzbuhel (H) 42.8%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +17.7%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.1%

TSV St. Johann (A) 34.0%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -28.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kitzbuhel face TSV St. Johann in Austria - Regionalliga - West on Thursday, June 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kitzbuhel a 43% chance, the draw 23% and TSV St. Johann 34%, so Kitzbuhel are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Kitzbuhel and 1.2 for TSV St. Johann (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kitzbuhel are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 0.85 for TSV St. Johann. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +17.7%. This match finished 0-0.

Kitzbuhel vs TSV St. Johann Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - West

Match Preview & Prediction

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