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Saalfelden vs TSV St. Johann Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - West

West - 30 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 11:00

Saalfelden

PPG 1.08 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

TSV St. Johann

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-18.4%0-25.7%0-32.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.0%1-112.0%1-28.1%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.4%2-18.6%2-25.7%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.0%3-14.1%3-22.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.0%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.9% 34.5% 2.90 +9.9%

Draw 26.1% 28.2% 3.55 -4.4%

Away win 36.1% 50.0% 2.00 -27.8%

Over 2.5 52.6% 57.8% 1.73 -9.0%

Over 3.5 30.1% 32.9% 3.04 -8.5%

BTTS 54.6% 58.8% 1.70 -7.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

H 38% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 0–0 6.3%

#4 1–2 8.1%

#5 1–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Saalfelden1.4

TSV St. Johann1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SAALFELDEN · PPG 1.08

TSV ST. JOHANN · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.08) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Saalfelden (H) 37.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +9.9%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -4.4%

TSV St. Johann (A) 36.1%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -27.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Saalfelden face TSV St. Johann in Austria - Regionalliga - West on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Saalfelden a 38% chance, the draw 26% and TSV St. Johann 36%, so Saalfelden are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Saalfelden and 1.3 for TSV St. Johann (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Saalfelden are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 0.67 for TSV St. Johann. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.9%. This match finished 1-4.

Saalfelden vs TSV St. Johann Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - West

Match Preview & Prediction

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