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Deportivo Merlo vs D. Laferrere Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 18 ·Tuesday, June 2, 2026, 22:00

Deportivo Merlo

PPG 1.67 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

D. Laferrere

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.2%0-111.7%0-24.5%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.9%1-113.1%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.4%2-17.3%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.5%3-12.7%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.1% 40.8% 2.45 +8.1%

Draw 32.1% 40.0% 2.50 -19.8%

Away win 23.9% 32.3% 3.10 -15.6%

Over 2.5 37.1% 36.4% 2.75 +2.0%

Over 3.5 19.3% 18.2% 5.50 +3.7%

BTTS 48.0% 44.4% 2.25 +8.0%

Home O1.5 44.1% 30.8% 3.25 +43.3%

Away O1.5 27.9% 26.7% 3.75 +2.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.0%

H 44% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.2%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 1–0 16.9%

#4 0–1 11.7%

#5 2–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Merlo1.1

D. Laferrere0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.1% · O3.5 PROB 19.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MERLO · PPG 1.67

D. LAFERRERE · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Merlo (H) 44.1%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +8.1%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -19.8%

D. Laferrere (A) 23.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Merlo face D. Laferrere in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Tuesday, June 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Merlo a 44% chance, the draw 32% and D. Laferrere 24%, so Deportivo Merlo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Deportivo Merlo and 0.8 for D. Laferrere (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Merlo are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.33 for D. Laferrere. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +43.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Deportivo Merlo vs D. Laferrere Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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