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Al Bidda vs Al Muaidar Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Regular Season - 29 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Al Bidda

PPG 0.50 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Al Muaidar

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 67.4% vs bookmaker-implied 20.8% — a clear edge.

+223.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-110.5%0-211.4%0-38.2%0-4+7.4%1 1-04.1%1-19.0%1-29.8%1-37.1%1-4+6.4%2 2-01.8%2-13.9%2-24.2%2-33.0%2-4+2.7%3 3-00.5%3-11.1%3-21.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.6% 59.9% 1.67 -77.3%

Draw 19.0% 30.3% 3.30 -37.3%

Away win 67.4% 20.8% 4.80 +223.5%

Over 2.5 58.3% 43.5% 2.30 +34.1%

Over 3.5 35.9% — — —

BTTS 51.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob51.0%

A 67% / xG 0.9-2.2 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 11.4%

#2 0–1 10.5%

#3 1–2 9.8%

#4 1–1 9.0%

#5 0–3 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Bidda0.9

Al Muaidar2.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.3% · O3.5 PROB 35.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AL BIDDA · PPG 0.50

AL MUAIDAR · PPG 1.40

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Al Bidda (H) 13.6%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -77.3%

Draw 19.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -37.3%

Al Muaidar (A) 67.4%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +223.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Bidda face Al Muaidar in Iraq - Iraqi League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Bidda a 14% chance, the draw 19% and Al Muaidar 67%, so Al Muaidar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Al Bidda and 2.2 for Al Muaidar (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Bidda are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.40 for Al Muaidar. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +223.5%. This match finished 3-0.

Al Bidda vs Al Muaidar Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Match Preview & Prediction

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