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Zakho vs Al Talaba Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 15:45

Zakho

PPG 1.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Al Talaba

PPG 1.34 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 57.2% vs bookmaker-implied 54.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-18.6%0-26.2%0-33.0%0-4+1.5%1 1-08.2%1-111.9%1-28.6%1-34.1%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.6%2-18.1%2-25.9%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.6%3-13.7%3-22.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.0% 40.0% 2.50 -12.5%

Draw 23.6% 33.3% 3.00 -17.5%

Away win 41.4% 38.2% 2.62 +8.5%

Over 2.5 54.3% 45.5% 2.20 +19.5%

Over 3.5 34.5% 26.2% 3.82 +31.8%

BTTS 57.2% 54.3% 1.84 +5.3%

Home O1.5 39.5% 37.9% 2.64 +4.3%

Away O1.5 42.2% 37.3% 2.68 +13.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -26.4%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob57.2%

A 41% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 0–1 8.6%

#5 0–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zakho1.4

Al Talaba1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ZAKHO · PPG 1.70

AL TALABA · PPG 1.34

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

55%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.07 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Zakho (H) 35.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -12.5%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -17.5%

Al Talaba (A) 41.4%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zakho face Al Talaba in Iraq - Iraqi League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zakho a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Al Talaba 41%, so Al Talaba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Zakho and 1.4 for Al Talaba (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zakho are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.34 for Al Talaba. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +31.8%.

Zakho vs Al Talaba Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iraq - Iraqi League Predictions