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Erbil vs Al Minaa Basra Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Matchday 4 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 18:00

Erbil

PPG 1.93 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWW ·

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Al Minaa Basra

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWL ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-110.5%0-24.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.7%1-113.1%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.2%2-18.2%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.8%3-13.4%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.4%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 54.6% 1.83 -19.7%

Draw 27.4% 31.3% 3.20 -7.4%

Away win 28.7% 25.6% 3.90 +7.2%

Over 2.5 42.7% 45.5% 2.20 -6.1%

Over 3.5 21.4% — — —

BTTS 48.2% — — —

Home O1.5 36.6% — — —

Away O1.5 25.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -61.4%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.2%

H 44% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.7%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 0–0 11.7%

#4 0–1 10.5%

#5 2–0✓ 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Erbil1.3

Al Minaa Basra0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ERBIL · PPG 1.93

AL MINAA BASRA · PPG 1.12

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.36, combined xG 2.14 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Erbil (H) 43.9%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -19.7%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.4%

Al Minaa Basra (A) 28.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +7.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Erbil face Al Minaa Basra in Iraq - Iraqi League on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Erbil a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Al Minaa Basra 29%, so Erbil are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Erbil and 0.9 for Al Minaa Basra (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Erbil are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.12 for Al Minaa Basra. This match finished 2-0.

Erbil vs Al Minaa Basra Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Match Preview & Prediction

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