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Duhok vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Matchday 5 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 18:00

Duhok

PPG 1.34 · HOME

UPCOMING

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-110.0%0-26.7%0-33.0%0-4+1.3%1 1-09.4%1-112.5%1-28.4%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.9%2-17.9%2-25.3%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.5%3-13.3%3-22.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.7% 29.4% 3.40 +24.8%

Draw 26.6% 34.7% 2.88 -14.0%

Away win 36.7% 46.5% 2.15 -21.1%

Over 2.5 51.9% 42.0% 2.38 +23.5%

Over 3.5 31.6% 23.8% 4.20 +32.7%

BTTS 54.6% 51.8% 1.93 +5.4%

Home O1.5 38.1% 29.9% 3.34 +27.3%

Away O1.5 42.2% 40.8% 2.45 +3.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -61.4%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

H 37% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 2–1 7.9%

#3 1–2 8.4%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Duhok1.3

Al Quwa Al Jawiya1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DUHOK · PPG 1.34

AL QUWA AL JAWIYA · PPG 1.69

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Duhok (H) 36.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +24.8%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -14.0%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya (A) 36.7%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -21.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Duhok face Al Quwa Al Jawiya in Iraq - Iraqi League on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Duhok a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Al Quwa Al Jawiya 37%, so Duhok are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Duhok and 1.3 for Al Quwa Al Jawiya (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Duhok are averaging 1.34 points per game versus 1.69 for Al Quwa Al Jawiya. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +32.7%.

Duhok vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Match Preview & Prediction

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