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Al Karkh vs Al Kahrabaa Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 18:00

Al Karkh

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLD ·

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Al Kahrabaa

PPG 1.03 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDD ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-111.2%0-25.7%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.0%1-113.3%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.8%2-17.9%2-24.0%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.1%3-13.2%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.7% 44.4% 2.25 -8.4%

Draw 28.6% 33.3% 3.00 -8.5%

Away win 30.7% 33.3% 3.00 -7.9%

Over 2.5 44.5% 42.6% 2.35 +4.6%

Over 3.5 25.1% 24.4% 4.10 +1.8%

BTTS 49.2% 50.0% 2.00 -1.6%

Home O1.5 32.2% 38.5% 2.60 -16.3%

Away O1.5 32.6% 29.4% 3.40 +10.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -61.4%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.2%

D 29% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 1–0 13.0%

#3 0–0 10.9%

#4 0–1 11.2%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Karkh1.2

Al Kahrabaa1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AL KARKH · PPG 1.29

AL KAHRABAA · PPG 1.03

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.17, combined xG 2.21 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al Karkh (H) 40.7%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -8.4%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.5%

Al Kahrabaa (A) 30.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Karkh face Al Kahrabaa in Iraq - Iraqi League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Karkh a 41% chance, the draw 29% and Al Kahrabaa 31%, so Al Karkh are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Al Karkh and 1.0 for Al Kahrabaa (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Karkh are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.03 for Al Kahrabaa. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +10.8%. This match finished 2-2.

Al Karkh vs Al Kahrabaa Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Match Preview & Prediction

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