Today / Iraq - Iraqi League / Naft Maysan vs Newroz

Naft Maysan vs Newroz Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Matchday 5 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:00

Naft Maysan

PPG 1.18 · HOME

UPCOMING

Newroz

PPG 0.99 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-111.7%0-26.5%0-32.4%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.1%1-113.4%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.9%2-17.6%2-24.2%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.6%3-12.9%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 38.5% 2.60 -6.9%

Draw 28.5% 33.3% 3.00 -8.7%

Away win 35.7% 40.0% 2.50 -10.8%

Over 2.5 43.0% 42.6% 2.35 +1.1%

Over 3.5 24.0% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 31.2% — — —

Away O1.5 33.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -61.4%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.5%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 10.7%

#3 0–1 11.7%

#4 1–0 12.1%

#5 1–2 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Naft Maysan1.1

Newroz1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.0% · O3.5 PROB 24.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NAFT MAYSAN · PPG 1.18

NEWROZ · PPG 0.99

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.04, combined xG 2.24 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Naft Maysan (H) 35.8%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -6.9%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.7%

Newroz (A) 35.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Naft Maysan face Newroz in Iraq - Iraqi League on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Naft Maysan a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Newroz 36%, so Naft Maysan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Naft Maysan and 1.1 for Newroz (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Naft Maysan are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 0.99 for Newroz. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.1%.

Naft Maysan vs Newroz Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Match Preview & Prediction

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