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Diyala vs Al-Karma Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Matchday 5 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 15:45

Diyala

PPG 1.53 · HOME

UPCOMING

Al-Karma

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 49.3% — a clear edge.

+12.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-110.4%0-27.1%0-33.2%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.2%1-112.6%1-28.6%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.6%2-17.6%2-25.2%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.3%3-13.1%3-22.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.8% 23.8% 4.20 +46.2%

Draw 24.2% 30.3% 3.30 -12.1%

Away win 41.1% 57.8% 1.73 -28.9%

Over 2.5 53.8% 43.5% 2.30 +23.7%

Over 3.5 31.7% 24.7% 4.05 +28.4%

BTTS 55.6% 49.3% 2.03 +12.9%

Home O1.5 33.1% 24.1% 4.15 +37.4%

Away O1.5 42.2% 47.6% 2.10 -11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -61.4%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.6%

A 41% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 0–1 10.4%

#4 2–1 7.6%

#5 1–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Diyala1.2

Al-Karma1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DIYALA · PPG 1.53

AL-KARMA · PPG 1.30

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.15 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Diyala (H) 34.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +46.2%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.1%

Al-Karma (A) 41.1%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -28.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Diyala face Al-Karma in Iraq - Iraqi League on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Diyala a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Al-Karma 41%, so Al-Karma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Diyala and 1.4 for Al-Karma (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Diyala are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.30 for Al-Karma. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +37.4%.

Diyala vs Al-Karma Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Match Preview & Prediction

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