Today / Iraq - Iraqi League / Al Talaba vs Naft

Al Talaba vs Naft Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Matchday 4 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 15:45

Al Talaba

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWD ·

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Naft

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDD ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-111.6%0-25.6%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.8%1-113.4%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.0%2-17.7%2-23.7%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.1%3-13.0%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.3% 50.0% 2.00 -19.4%

Draw 28.9% 33.3% 3.00 -8.0%

Away win 30.9% 29.4% 3.40 +5.1%

Over 2.5 44.5% 43.5% 2.30 +2.4%

Over 3.5 25.5% — — —

BTTS 49.9% — — —

Home O1.5 31.4% — — —

Away O1.5 26.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -61.4%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.9%

D 29% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 1–0 13.8%

#3 0–0✓ 12.0%

#4 0–1 11.6%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Talaba1.2

Naft1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AL TALABA · PPG 1.88

NAFT · PPG 1.20

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.19, combined xG 2.12 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al Talaba (H) 40.3%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -19.4%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.0%

Naft (A) 30.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Talaba face Naft in Iraq - Iraqi League on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Talaba a 40% chance, the draw 29% and Naft 31%, so Al Talaba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Al Talaba and 1.0 for Naft (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Talaba are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.20 for Naft. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Al Talaba vs Naft Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iraq - Iraqi League Predictions