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Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Naft Maysan Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 15:45

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

PPG 1.93 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDD ·

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Naft Maysan

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLD ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.4% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-16.8%0-23.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.5%1-111.5%1-25.7%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-19.7%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.4%3-15.4%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.3%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 69.4% 1.44 -24.5%

Draw 24.1% 25.6% 3.90 -3.6%

Away win 23.5% 16.0% 6.25 +28.1%

Over 2.5 53.4% 51.3% 1.95 +4.1%

Over 3.5 31.5% 31.8% 3.14 -1.1%

BTTS 52.7% 47.4% 2.11 +11.2%

Home O1.5 48.9% 61.7% 1.62 -20.8%

Away O1.5 30.5% 17.7% 5.65 +72.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -61.4%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.7%

H 52% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.5%

#2 1–0 11.5%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Quwa Al Jawiya1.7

Naft Maysan1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AL QUWA AL JAWIYA · PPG 1.93

NAFT MAYSAN · PPG 1.09

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Al Quwa Al Jawiya (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -24.5%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -3.6%

Naft Maysan (A) 23.5%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +28.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Quwa Al Jawiya face Naft Maysan in Iraq - Iraqi League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Quwa Al Jawiya a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Naft Maysan 24%, so Al Quwa Al Jawiya are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Al Quwa Al Jawiya and 1.0 for Naft Maysan (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Quwa Al Jawiya are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.09 for Naft Maysan. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +72.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Naft Maysan Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Match Preview & Prediction

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