Today / Iraq - Iraqi League / Al Kahrabaa vs Gharraf

Al Kahrabaa vs Gharraf Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Matchday 5 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 18:00

Al Kahrabaa

PPG 1.08 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gharraf

PPG 1.03 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 51.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-110.5%0-25.6%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.5%1-113.2%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.8%2-18.2%2-24.3%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.2%3-13.4%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.8% 45.5% 2.20 -3.6%

Draw 27.4% 34.7% 2.88 -12.7%

Away win 28.8% 31.3% 3.20 -4.7%

Over 2.5 50.3% 42.0% 2.38 +19.7%

Over 3.5 28.2% 23.5% 4.25 +11.9%

BTTS 52.3% 51.0% 1.96 +2.5%

Home O1.5 36.5% 39.8% 2.51 -8.4%

Away O1.5 32.5% 30.5% 3.28 +6.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -61.4%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

H 44% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 0–0 10.0%

#4 2–1 8.2%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Kahrabaa1.3

Gharraf1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AL KAHRABAA · PPG 1.08

GHARRAF · PPG 1.03

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.20, combined xG 2.30 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al Kahrabaa (H) 43.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -3.6%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -12.7%

Gharraf (A) 28.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -4.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Kahrabaa face Gharraf in Iraq - Iraqi League on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Kahrabaa a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Gharraf 29%, so Al Kahrabaa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Al Kahrabaa and 1.1 for Gharraf (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Kahrabaa are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.03 for Gharraf. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +19.7%.

Al Kahrabaa vs Gharraf Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iraq - Iraqi League Predictions