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Al Minaa Basra vs Naft Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 18:00

Al Minaa Basra

PPG 1.77 · HOME

UPCOMING

Naft

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.0%0-113.3%0-25.5%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-016.1%1-113.3%1-25.5%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.1%2-16.7%2-22.8%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.7%3-12.2%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.0% 45.5% 2.20 -14.2%

Draw 31.8% 34.5% 2.90 -7.8%

Away win 29.2% 31.3% 3.20 -3.9%

Over 2.5 38.8% 38.2% 2.62 +1.7%

Over 3.5 18.5% 18.9% 5.30 -1.2%

BTTS 47.4% 46.3% 2.16 +2.4%

Home O1.5 30.8% 35.7% 2.80 -13.8%

Away O1.5 23.6% 26.7% 3.75 -6.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -26.4%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.4%

D 32% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.0%

#2 1–0 16.1%

#3 1–1 13.3%

#4 0–1 13.3%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Minaa Basra1.0

Naft0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AL MINAA BASRA · PPG 1.77

NAFT · PPG 1.17

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

47%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.17, combined xG 1.83 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al Minaa Basra (H) 39.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -14.2%

Draw 31.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -7.8%

Naft (A) 29.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -3.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Minaa Basra face Naft in Iraq - Iraqi League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Minaa Basra a 39% chance, the draw 32% and Naft 29%, so Al Minaa Basra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Al Minaa Basra and 0.8 for Naft (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Minaa Basra are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 1.17 for Naft. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +2.4%.

Al Minaa Basra vs Naft Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Match Preview & Prediction

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