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A. Quilmes vs Ituzaingo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 18 ·Monday, June 1, 2026, 18:30

A. Quilmes

PPG 1.11 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Ituzaingo

PPG 0.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-17.9%0-22.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.3%1-111.4%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.3%2-18.2%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.4%3-14.0%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-12.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% 57.8% 1.73 -9.5%

Draw 27.1% 30.8% 3.25 -7.2%

Away win 20.6% 21.1% 4.75 -1.3%

Over 2.5 43.2% 42.6% 2.35 +1.5%

Over 3.5 22.5% 23.1% 4.33 -1.5%

BTTS 47.2% 47.6% 2.10 -0.9%

Home O1.5 42.4% 48.8% 2.05 -13.1%

Away O1.5 12.8% 22.2% 4.50 -25.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.2%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.3%

#2 0–0 12.7%

#3 2–0✓ 13.3%

#4 1–1 11.4%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Quilmes1.4

Ituzaingo0.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.2% · O3.5 PROB 22.5%

Form & verdict PPG

A. QUILMES · PPG 1.11

ITUZAINGO · PPG 0.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.11) vs P(Home)=52.3%

Win probability 1X2

A. Quilmes (H) 52.3%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -9.5%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.2%

Ituzaingo (A) 20.6%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Quilmes face Ituzaingo in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Monday, June 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Quilmes a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Ituzaingo 21%, so A. Quilmes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for A. Quilmes and 0.6 for Ituzaingo (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Quilmes are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.13 for Ituzaingo. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.5%. This match finished 2-0.

A. Quilmes vs Ituzaingo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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