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SM Burzaco vs Arsenal Sarandi Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 22:00

SM Burzaco

PPG 0.89 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Arsenal Sarandi

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-022.9%0-121.2%0-29.9%0-33.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.5%1-111.6%1-25.4%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-03.4%2-13.2%2-21.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-00.6%3-10.6%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.0% 33.9% 2.95 -21.1%

Draw 36.4% 34.7% 2.88 +4.8%

Away win 41.6% 41.7% 2.40 -0.2%

Over 2.5 27.4% 35.1% 2.85 -13.2%

Over 3.5 12.5% 18.2% 5.50 -18.8%

BTTS 44.4% 44.4% 2.25 -0.1%

Home O1.5 10.5% 28.2% 3.55 -37.6%

Away O1.5 23.8% 33.3% 3.00 -17.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob44.4%

A 42% / xG 0.5-0.9 / U2.5 27% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 22.9%

#2 0–1 21.2%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 1–0 12.5%

#5 0–2 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SM Burzaco0.5

Arsenal Sarandi0.9

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 27.4% · O3.5 PROB 12.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SM BURZACO · PPG 0.89

ARSENAL SARANDI · PPG 1.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.89) vs Home POOR (0.89)

Win probability 1X2

SM Burzaco (H) 22.0%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -21.1%

Draw 36.4%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +4.8%

Arsenal Sarandi (A) 41.6%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

SM Burzaco face Arsenal Sarandi in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SM Burzaco a 22% chance, the draw 36% and Arsenal Sarandi 42%, so Arsenal Sarandi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for SM Burzaco and 0.9 for Arsenal Sarandi (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 27% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SM Burzaco are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 1.89 for Arsenal Sarandi. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +4.8%. This match finished 2-0.

SM Burzaco vs Arsenal Sarandi Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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