Today / D. Tachira vs E. Merida

D. Tachira vs E. Merida Prediction

Sunday, May 31, 2026

D. Tachira

PPG 1.89 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

E. Merida

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-19.2%0-24.0%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.5%1-112.7%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.0%2-18.7%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.6%3-14.0%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% — — —

Draw 27.4% — — —

Away win 23.3% — — —

Over 2.5 46.2% — — —

Over 3.5 27.7% — — —

BTTS 47.2% — — —

Home O1.5 40.1% — — —

Away O1.5 21.8% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.2%

H 49% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0✓ 14.5%

#3 0–0 10.5%

#4 2–0 10.0%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Tachira1.4

E. Merida0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

D. TACHIRA · PPG 1.89

E. MERIDA · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.89) > Away AVERAGE (1.11)

Win probability 1X2

D. Tachira (H) 49.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

E. Merida (A) 23.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Tachira face E. Merida on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Tachira a 49% chance, the draw 27% and E. Merida 23%, so D. Tachira are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for D. Tachira and 0.9 for E. Merida (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Tachira are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.11 for E. Merida. This match finished 1-0.

D. Tachira vs E. Merida Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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