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Sydney Utd vs Sutherland S. Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 04:30

Sydney Utd

PPG 2.44 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Sutherland S.

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-16.2%0-22.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.6%1-110.9%1-24.4%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.0%2-19.6%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.0%3-15.6%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-13.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 64.5% 1.55 -17.8%

Draw 24.7% 25.3% 3.95 -1.5%

Away win 22.3% 20.0% 5.00 +6.9%

Over 2.5 49.0% 57.8% 1.73 -15.2%

Over 3.5 28.8% 35.1% 2.85 -10.8%

BTTS 51.6% 57.1% 1.75 -9.7%

Home O1.5 52.6% 62.5% 1.60 -15.8%

Away O1.5 19.2% 28.2% 3.55 -19.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.6%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–0 12.0%

#3 1–0 13.6%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sydney Utd1.8

Sutherland S.0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SYDNEY UTD · PPG 2.44

SUTHERLAND S. · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.44) vs P(Home)=53.0%

Win probability 1X2

Sydney Utd (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -17.8%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -1.5%

Sutherland S. (A) 22.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sydney Utd face Sutherland S. in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sydney Utd a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Sutherland S. 22%, so Sydney Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Sydney Utd and 0.8 for Sutherland S. (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sydney Utd are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 1.00 for Sutherland S.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Sydney Utd vs Sutherland S. Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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