Today / Australia - Victoria NPL 2 / Western Utd B vs Northcote City

Western Utd B vs Northcote City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 04:00

Western Utd B

PPG 1.71 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Northcote City

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 67.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-15.3%0-26.2%0-34.9%0-4+5.0%1 1-03.3%1-17.7%1-29.0%1-37.0%1-4+7.2%2 2-02.4%2-15.5%2-26.5%2-35.1%2-4+5.2%3 3-01.1%3-12.7%3-23.1%3-32.4%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.3%4+-21.5%4+-31.2%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.5% 25.6% 3.90 +2.0%

Draw 20.9% 26.3% 3.80 -12.3%

Away win 52.6% 60.6% 1.65 -13.2%

Over 2.5 65.8% 71.4% 1.40 -7.9%

Over 3.5 43.1% 51.5% 1.94 -16.4%

BTTS 63.4% 71.4% 1.40 -11.2%

Home O1.5 42.2% 43.1% 2.32 -2.1%

Away O1.5 67.9% 69.9% 1.43 -2.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob63.4%

A 53% / xG 1.4-2.3 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2✓ 9.0%

#2 1–1 7.7%

#3 1–3 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 0–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Western Utd B1.4

Northcote City2.3

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

WESTERN UTD B · PPG 1.71

NORTHCOTE CITY · PPG 1.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.71), Away GOOD (1.86)

Win probability 1X2

Western Utd B (H) 26.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +2.0%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -12.3%

Northcote City (A) 52.6%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Western Utd B face Northcote City in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Western Utd B a 27% chance, the draw 21% and Northcote City 53%, so Northcote City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Western Utd B and 2.3 for Northcote City (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Western Utd B are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.86 for Northcote City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Western Utd B vs Northcote City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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