Today / Australia - South Australia NPL / West Adelaide vs Adelaide City

West Adelaide vs Adelaide City Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 07:15

West Adelaide

PPG 1.20 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Adelaide City

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-15.9%0-26.0%0-34.0%0-4+3.2%1 1-04.4%1-18.9%1-29.0%1-36.1%1-4+4.9%2 2-03.3%2-16.7%2-26.8%2-34.6%2-4+3.7%3 3-01.7%3-13.4%3-23.4%3-32.3%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.8%4+-21.8%4+-31.2%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.7% 24.4% 4.10 +38.2%

Draw 22.9% 26.0% 3.85 -7.1%

Away win 43.4% 61.7% 1.62 -29.7%

Over 2.5 64.1% 66.7% 1.50 -3.9%

Over 3.5 42.5% 46.5% 2.15 -8.6%

BTTS 63.4% 66.7% 1.50 -4.9%

Home O1.5 44.7% 38.2% 2.62 +17.1%

Away O1.5 60.0% 65.4% 1.53 -8.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.4%

A 43% / xG 1.5-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 1–2✓ 9.0%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 2–1 6.7%

#5 1–3 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

West Adelaide1.5

Adelaide City2.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.5%

Form & verdict PPG

WEST ADELAIDE · PPG 1.20

ADELAIDE CITY · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

West Adelaide (H) 33.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +38.2%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -7.1%

Adelaide City (A) 43.4%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -29.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

West Adelaide face Adelaide City in Australia - South Australia NPL on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives West Adelaide a 34% chance, the draw 23% and Adelaide City 43%, so Adelaide City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for West Adelaide and 2.0 for Adelaide City (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, West Adelaide are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.33 for Adelaide City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +38.2%. This match finished 1-2.

West Adelaide vs Adelaide City Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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