Today / Australia - Victoria NPL / St. Albans vs Preston Lions

St. Albans vs Preston Lions Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 07:00

St. Albans

PPG 1.17 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY O1.5

Preston Lions

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 55.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-112.3%0-211.4%0-37.0%0-4+5.0%1 1-05.7%1-110.6%1-29.8%1-36.1%1-4+4.3%2 2-02.5%2-14.5%2-24.2%2-32.6%2-4+1.8%3 3-00.7%3-11.3%3-21.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.9% 26.0% 3.85 -11.7%

Draw 24.6% 27.0% 3.70 -5.4%

Away win 54.5% 57.1% 1.75 -4.6%

Over 2.5 51.2% 61.7% 1.62 -17.1%

Over 3.5 30.6% 40.0% 2.50 -23.5%

BTTS 51.6% 64.5% 1.55 -20.0%

Home O1.5 21.3% 37.7% 2.65 -26.1%

Away O1.5 55.3% 60.6% 1.65 -8.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob51.6%

A 55% / xG 0.9-1.9 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 0–2 11.4%

#3 0–1✓ 12.3%

#4 1–2 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Albans0.9

Preston Lions1.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. ALBANS · PPG 1.17

PRESTON LIONS · PPG 1.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.86) vs Home AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

St. Albans (H) 20.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -11.7%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -5.4%

Preston Lions (A) 54.5%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Albans face Preston Lions in Australia - Victoria NPL on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Albans a 21% chance, the draw 25% and Preston Lions 55%, so Preston Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for St. Albans and 1.9 for Preston Lions (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Albans are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.86 for Preston Lions. This match finished 0-1.

St. Albans vs Preston Lions Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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