Today / A. Malagueno vs Antoniano

A. Malagueno vs Antoniano Prediction

Group 4 - 32 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 15:00

A. Malagueno

PPG 0.93 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

Antoniano

PPG 0.47 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-19.6%0-25.2%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.0%1-112.9%1-26.9%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.0%2-18.6%2-24.6%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.6%3-13.9%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.7% — — —

Draw 27.3% — — —

Away win 30.0% — — —

Over 2.5 43.4% — — —

Over 3.5 22.5% — — —

BTTS 48.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.6%

H 43% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 0–1 9.6%

#4 0–0 8.9%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Malagueno1.3

Antoniano1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.4% · O3.5 PROB 22.5%

Form & verdict PPG

A. MALAGUENO · PPG 0.93

ANTONIANO · PPG 0.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.93) > Away POOR (0.47)

Win probability 1X2

A. Malagueno (H) 42.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Antoniano (A) 30.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Malagueno face Antoniano on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Malagueno a 43% chance, the draw 27% and Antoniano 30%, so A. Malagueno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for A. Malagueno and 1.1 for Antoniano (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Malagueno are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 0.47 for Antoniano. This match finished 3-2.

A. Malagueno vs Antoniano Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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