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S. Italiano vs Argentino Merlo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 17:30

S. Italiano

PPG 1.78 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Argentino Merlo

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-026.2%0-112.5%0-23.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-022.6%1-110.8%1-22.6%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.7%2-14.7%2-21.1%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.8%3-11.3%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.2% 48.8% 2.05 -13.5%

Draw 35.0% 36.4% 2.75 -3.8%

Away win 22.8% 25.0% 4.00 -5.3%

Over 2.5 25.8% 29.9% 3.35 -8.1%

Over 3.5 12.5% 13.3% 7.50 -3.8%

BTTS 41.8% 38.5% 2.60 +8.7%

Home O1.5 21.4% 34.5% 2.90 -22.8%

Away O1.5 8.4% 20.0% 5.00 -34.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob41.8%

H 42% / xG 0.9-0.5 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 26.2%

#2 1–0 22.6%

#3 1–1 10.8%

#4 0–1 12.5%

#5 2–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Italiano0.9

Argentino Merlo0.5

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 12.5%

Form & verdict PPG

S. ITALIANO · PPG 1.78

ARGENTINO MERLO · PPG 1.22

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.78) > Away AVERAGE (1.22)

Win probability 1X2

S. Italiano (H) 42.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -13.5%

Draw 35.0%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -3.8%

Argentino Merlo (A) 22.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Italiano face Argentino Merlo in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Italiano a 42% chance, the draw 35% and Argentino Merlo 23%, so S. Italiano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for S. Italiano and 0.5 for Argentino Merlo (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Italiano are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.22 for Argentino Merlo. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +8.7%. This match finished 0-2.

S. Italiano vs Argentino Merlo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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