Today / IBV vs Keflavik

IBV vs Keflavik Prediction

Sunday, May 31, 2026

IBV

PPG 0.25 · HOME

6 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY O1.5

Keflavik

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.25)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-16.3%0-27.7%0-36.2%0-4+6.8%1 1-03.1%1-17.7%1-29.4%1-37.6%1-4+8.3%2 2-01.9%2-14.7%2-25.7%2-34.6%2-4+5.0%3 3-00.8%3-11.9%3-22.3%3-31.9%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.8% — — —

Draw 21.9% — — —

Away win 60.3% — — —

Over 2.5 64.1% — — —

Over 3.5 43.1% — — —

BTTS 61.0% — — —

Home O1.5 34.4% — — —

Away O1.5 70.0% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob61.0%

A 60% / xG 1.2-2.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.4%

#2 1–1 7.7%

#3 0–2 7.7%

#4 1–3 7.6%

#5 0–3 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IBV1.2

Keflavik2.4

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

IBV · PPG 0.25

KEFLAVIK · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.25)

Win probability 1X2

IBV (H) 17.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Keflavik (A) 60.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

IBV face Keflavik on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IBV a 18% chance, the draw 22% and Keflavik 60%, so Keflavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for IBV and 2.4 for Keflavik (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IBV are averaging 0.25 points per game versus 1.50 for Keflavik. This match finished 6-1.

IBV vs Keflavik Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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