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Novi Pazar vs OFK Beograd Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Championship Group - 31 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 15:00

Novi Pazar

PPG 1.80 · HOME

1 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

OFK Beograd

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-17.6%0-24.0%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.4%1-112.0%1-26.3%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.4%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.7%3-15.0%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.8%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 46.3% 2.16 +7.1%

Draw 25.1% 29.9% 3.35 -15.9%

Away win 25.2% 32.8% 3.05 -23.1%

Over 2.5 49.0% 51.8% 1.93 -5.4%

Over 3.5 27.1% 29.9% 3.35 -9.2%

BTTS 51.7% 58.8% 1.70 -12.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -0.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.7%

H 50% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 11.4%

#3 2–1 9.4%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 0–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Novi Pazar1.6

OFK Beograd1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.0% · O3.5 PROB 27.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NOVI PAZAR · PPG 1.80

OFK BEOGRAD · PPG 1.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.80), Away GOOD (1.73)

Win probability 1X2

Novi Pazar (H) 49.6%

ODDS 2.16 · IMPLIED 46.3% EV +7.1%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -15.9%

OFK Beograd (A) 25.2%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -23.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Novi Pazar face OFK Beograd in Serbia - Super Liga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Novi Pazar a 50% chance, the draw 25% and OFK Beograd 25%, so Novi Pazar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Novi Pazar and 1.1 for OFK Beograd (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Novi Pazar are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.73 for OFK Beograd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.1%. This match finished 1-5.

Novi Pazar vs OFK Beograd Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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