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MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 15:00

MTK Budapest

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kisvarda

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 59% chance

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+18.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-14.9%0-23.6%0-31.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-06.5%1-19.5%1-26.9%1-33.3%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.3%2-19.2%2-26.7%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.1%3-15.9%3-24.3%3-32.1%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-14.5%4+-23.3%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.0% 50.8% 1.97 -3.5%

Draw 22.0% 31.7% 3.15 -30.7%

Away win 29.0% 26.3% 3.80 +10.2%

Over 2.5 66.0% 55.6% 1.80 +18.8%

Over 3.5 44.1% 33.9% 2.95 +30.1%

BTTS 65.7% 61.7% 1.62 +6.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -12.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob65.7%

H 49% / xG 1.9-1.5 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1✓ 9.2%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 1–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

MTK Budapest1.9

Kisvarda1.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MTK BUDAPEST · PPG 1.40

KISVARDA · PPG 1.07

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

59%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

MTK Budapest (H) 49.0%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -3.5%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -30.7%

Kisvarda (A) 29.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +10.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

MTK Budapest face Kisvarda in Hungary - NB I on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives MTK Budapest a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Kisvarda 29%, so MTK Budapest are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for MTK Budapest and 1.5 for Kisvarda (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, MTK Budapest are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.07 for Kisvarda. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +30.1%. This match finished 2-1.

MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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