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Ferencvarosi TC vs Ujpest Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 15:45

Ferencvarosi TC

PPG 1.58 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWW

UPCOMING

Ujpest

PPG 1.16 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 65% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-15.0%0-22.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.4%1-19.9%1-25.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.6%3-16.5%3-23.8%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-15.1%4+-23.0%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 71.4% 1.40 -25.4%

Draw 23.8% 21.7% 4.60 +5.7%

Away win 22.9% 15.4% 6.50 +29.3%

Over 2.5 59.7% 67.6% 1.48 -11.6%

Over 3.5 36.9% 47.6% 2.10 -22.5%

BTTS 59.0% 59.9% 1.67 -1.5%

Home O1.5 55.8% 73.5% 1.36 -24.1%

Away O1.5 33.2% 26.7% 3.75 +24.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -12.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.0%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 1–0 8.4%

#5 1–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ferencvarosi TC2.0

Ujpest1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FERENCVAROSI TC · PPG 1.58

UJPEST · PPG 1.16

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

65%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ferencvarosi TC (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -25.4%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +5.7%

Ujpest (A) 22.9%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +29.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ferencvarosi TC face Ujpest in Hungary - NB I on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ferencvarosi TC a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Ujpest 23%, so Ferencvarosi TC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Ferencvarosi TC and 1.2 for Ujpest (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ferencvarosi TC are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.16 for Ujpest. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +49.6%.

Ferencvarosi TC vs Ujpest Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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