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MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda FC Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 15:30

MTK Budapest

PPG 1.68 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWD

UPCOMING

Kisvarda FC

PPG 1.24 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-15.6%0-23.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.1%1-110.4%1-26.7%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.4%2-19.5%2-26.2%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.5%3-15.9%3-23.8%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-14.1%4+-22.6%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.2% 50.8% 1.97 -5.1%

Draw 23.9% 27.8% 3.60 -8.4%

Away win 27.9% 30.8% 3.25 -5.6%

Over 2.5 59.6% 62.5% 1.60 -4.6%

Over 3.5 36.4% 40.0% 2.50 -9.0%

BTTS 59.9% 66.7% 1.50 -10.2%

Home O1.5 55.1% 56.5% 1.77 -2.5%

Away O1.5 38.4% 41.7% 2.40 -7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -20.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.9%

H 48% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–2 6.7%

#4 2–0 7.4%

#5 1–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

MTK Budapest1.8

Kisvarda FC1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MTK BUDAPEST · PPG 1.68

KISVARDA FC · PPG 1.24

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

MTK Budapest (H) 48.2%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -5.1%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -8.4%

Kisvarda FC (A) 27.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -5.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

MTK Budapest face Kisvarda FC in Hungary - NB I on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives MTK Budapest a 48% chance, the draw 24% and Kisvarda FC 28%, so MTK Budapest are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for MTK Budapest and 1.3 for Kisvarda FC (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, MTK Budapest are averaging 1.68 points per game versus 1.24 for Kisvarda FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +0.2%.

MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda FC Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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