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Ajka vs Soroksar Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 15:00

Ajka

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDWW

UPCOMING

Soroksar

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-19.8%0-26.4%0-32.7%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.7%1-112.6%1-28.2%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.2%2-18.1%2-25.3%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.7%3-13.5%3-22.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 39.2% 2.55 -8.2%

Draw 25.6% 30.8% 3.25 -10.1%

Away win 38.4% 42.6% 2.35 -9.8%

Over 2.5 53.8% 48.8% 2.05 +10.3%

Over 3.5 31.6% 32.9% 3.04 -3.9%

BTTS 54.6% 60.2% 1.66 -9.4%

Home O1.5 38.4% 40.8% 2.45 -5.9%

Away O1.5 39.3% 44.1% 2.27 -10.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 32.2%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

A 38% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–2 8.2%

#3 0–1 9.8%

#4 2–1 8.1%

#5 1–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ajka1.3

Soroksar1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AJKA · PPG 1.64

SOROKSAR · PPG 1.23

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

59%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ajka (H) 36.0%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -8.2%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -10.1%

Soroksar (A) 38.4%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -9.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ajka face Soroksar in Hungary - NB II on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ajka a 36% chance, the draw 26% and Soroksar 38%, so Soroksar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Ajka and 1.3 for Soroksar (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ajka are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.23 for Soroksar. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.3%.

Ajka vs Soroksar Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Match Preview & Prediction

More Hungary - NB II Predictions