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Gyori ETO FC vs Budapest Honved Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 18:00

Gyori ETO FC

PPG 1.94 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDL

UPCOMING

Budapest Honved

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 63% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-14.9%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.3%1-19.8%1-25.2%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.3%3-16.7%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-15.4%4+-22.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 54.6% 1.83 -2.6%

Draw 23.5% 27.8% 3.60 -9.2%

Away win 23.3% 27.0% 3.70 -8.3%

Over 2.5 59.7% 63.7% 1.57 -6.3%

Over 3.5 36.4% 44.4% 2.25 -18.1%

BTTS 55.9% 65.4% 1.53 -14.5%

Home O1.5 55.8% 61.7% 1.62 -9.6%

Away O1.5 32.5% 38.2% 2.62 -14.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -12.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.9%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 1–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gyori ETO FC2.0

Budapest Honved1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GYORI ETO FC · PPG 1.94

BUDAPEST HONVED · PPG 1.36

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

63%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.96 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Gyori ETO FC (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -2.6%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -9.2%

Budapest Honved (A) 23.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gyori ETO FC face Budapest Honved in Hungary - NB I on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gyori ETO FC a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Budapest Honved 23%, so Gyori ETO FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Gyori ETO FC and 1.1 for Budapest Honved (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gyori ETO FC are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 1.36 for Budapest Honved. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +4.3%.

Gyori ETO FC vs Budapest Honved Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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