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Gyirmot SE vs Karcag SE Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:00

Gyirmot SE

PPG 1.61 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLL

UPCOMING

Karcag SE

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+14.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-15.8%0-24.1%0-31.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.3%1-110.3%1-27.3%1-33.4%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.5%2-19.2%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.8%3-15.4%3-23.8%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.6%4+-22.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.0% 52.6% 1.90 -18.3%

Draw 22.6% 29.4% 3.40 -13.9%

Away win 34.4% 28.6% 3.50 +20.4%

Over 2.5 63.7% 55.6% 1.80 +14.7%

Over 3.5 40.8% 35.3% 2.83 +15.5%

BTTS 62.9% 61.0% 1.64 +3.2%

Home O1.5 49.9% 52.6% 1.90 -5.2%

Away O1.5 42.2% 35.7% 2.80 +18.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 32.2%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.9%

H 43% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gyirmot SE1.8

Karcag SE1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GYIRMOT SE · PPG 1.61

KARCAG SE · PPG 1.31

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.36 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gyirmot SE (H) 43.0%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -18.3%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -13.9%

Karcag SE (A) 34.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +20.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gyirmot SE face Karcag SE in Hungary - NB II on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gyirmot SE a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Karcag SE 34%, so Gyirmot SE are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Gyirmot SE and 1.4 for Karcag SE (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gyirmot SE are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 1.31 for Karcag SE. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +18.2%.

Gyirmot SE vs Karcag SE Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Match Preview & Prediction

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