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BATE Borisov vs Dnepr Mogilev Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Matchday 10 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 15:00

BATE Borisov

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Dnepr Mogilev

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.8%0-112.3%0-24.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.7%1-112.9%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.3%2-16.8%2-22.5%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.3%3-12.4%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 43.5% 2.30 +3.5%

Draw 31.0% 32.3% 3.10 -3.9%

Away win 24.0% 35.7% 2.80 -19.7%

Over 2.5 34.0% 51.8% 1.93 -34.4%

Over 3.5 18.6% 30.9% 3.24 -23.8%

BTTS 46.5% 57.1% 1.75 -18.6%

Home O1.5 28.4% 42.9% 2.33 -20.3%

Away O1.5 16.7% 38.3% 2.61 -33.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -100.0%

Bet Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.5%

H 45% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.8%

#2 1–0 17.7%

#3 1–1✓ 12.9%

#4 0–1 12.3%

#5 2–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BATE Borisov1.1

Dnepr Mogilev0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.0% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BATE BORISOV · PPG 1.00

DNEPR MOGILEV · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

47%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

BATE Borisov (H) 45.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +3.5%

Draw 31.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -3.9%

Dnepr Mogilev (A) 24.0%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -19.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

BATE Borisov face Dnepr Mogilev in Belarus - Premier League on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BATE Borisov a 45% chance, the draw 31% and Dnepr Mogilev 24%, so BATE Borisov are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for BATE Borisov and 0.7 for Dnepr Mogilev (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BATE Borisov are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.80 for Dnepr Mogilev. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +3.5%. This match finished 1-1.

BATE Borisov vs Dnepr Mogilev Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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