Today / Egypt - Premier League / Petrojet vs Pharco

Petrojet vs Pharco Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Relegation Group - 5 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 15:00

Petrojet

PPG 1.55 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Pharco

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 69.3% vs bookmaker-implied 48.1% — a clear edge.

+44.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.6%0-14.9%0-20.9%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-022.2%1-18.1%1-21.5%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-018.1%2-16.6%2-21.2%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-09.9%3-13.6%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-12.1%4+-20.4%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.3% 48.1% 2.08 +44.1%

Draw 22.9% 35.2% 2.84 -35.0%

Away win 7.8% 25.6% 3.90 -69.6%

Over 2.5 32.2% 43.5% 2.30 -25.9%

Over 3.5 14.2% 23.8% 4.20 -40.4%

BTTS 24.6% 52.6% 1.90 -53.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob24.6%

H 69% / xG 1.6-0.4 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 25%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 22.2%

#2 2–0 18.1%

#3 0–0 13.6%

#4 3–0 9.9%

#5 1–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Petrojet1.6

Pharco0.4

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.2% · O3.5 PROB 14.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PETROJET · PPG 1.55

PHARCO · PPG 0.67

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.55), Away POOR (0.67) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Petrojet (H) 69.3%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV +44.1%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 2.84 · IMPLIED 35.2% EV -35.0%

Pharco (A) 7.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -69.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Petrojet face Pharco in Egypt - Premier League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Petrojet a 69% chance, the draw 23% and Pharco 8%, so Petrojet are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Petrojet and 0.4 for Pharco (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 25% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Petrojet are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 0.67 for Pharco. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +44.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Petrojet vs Pharco Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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