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Vaprus vs Nõmme United Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Vaprus

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLD

UPCOMING

Nõmme United

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-12.5%0-22.1%0-31.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-03.8%1-16.3%1-25.3%1-33.0%1-4+1.8%2 2-04.7%2-18.0%2-26.7%2-33.8%2-4+2.3%3 3-04.0%3-16.7%3-25.7%3-33.2%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-17.8%4+-26.5%4+-33.7%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 44.4% 2.25 +18.1%

Draw 20.2% 30.3% 3.30 -20.0%

Away win 27.3% 37.0% 2.70 -15.8%

Over 2.5 68.4% 66.7% 1.50 +2.6%

Over 3.5 49.4% 45.5% 2.20 +8.7%

BTTS 65.6% 69.4% 1.44 -5.5%

Home O1.5 66.3% 54.6% 1.83 +21.3%

Away O1.5 47.9% 50.0% 2.00 -4.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob65.6%

H 52% / xG 2.5-1.7 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.0%

#2 1–1 6.3%

#3 2–2 6.7%

#4 3–1 6.7%

#5 1–2 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vaprus2.5

Nõmme United1.7

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VAPRUS · PPG 1.42

NÕMME UNITED · PPG 1.08

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.85 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Vaprus (H) 52.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +18.1%

Draw 20.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -20.0%

Nõmme United (A) 27.3%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -15.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vaprus face Nõmme United in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vaprus a 53% chance, the draw 20% and Nõmme United 27%, so Vaprus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Vaprus and 1.7 for Nõmme United (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vaprus are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.08 for Nõmme United. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +62.4%.

Vaprus vs Nõmme United Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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