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Kuressaare vs Trans Narva Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:30

Kuressaare

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLD

UPCOMING

Trans Narva

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.6% vs bookmaker-implied 38.5% — a clear edge.

+49.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-15.2%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.6%1-110.0%1-23.7%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.9%2-19.5%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.2%3-16.0%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-14.4%4+-21.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.6% 38.5% 2.60 +49.8%

Draw 21.8% 32.3% 3.10 -19.4%

Away win 20.6% 40.8% 2.45 -29.7%

Over 2.5 53.8% 54.1% 1.85 -0.5%

Over 3.5 31.7% 30.8% 3.25 +3.0%

BTTS 51.4% 59.9% 1.67 -14.2%

Home O1.5 55.8% 42.0% 2.38 +32.8%

Away O1.5 18.8% 44.4% 2.25 -34.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob51.4%

H 58% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.9%

#2 1–0 13.6%

#3 1–1 10.0%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kuressaare1.9

Trans Narva0.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KURESSAARE · PPG 1.25

TRANS NARVA · PPG 0.33

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.17 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kuressaare (H) 57.6%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +49.8%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -19.4%

Trans Narva (A) 20.6%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -29.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kuressaare face Trans Narva in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kuressaare a 58% chance, the draw 22% and Trans Narva 21%, so Kuressaare are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Kuressaare and 0.7 for Trans Narva (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kuressaare are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.33 for Trans Narva. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +68.9%.

Kuressaare vs Trans Narva Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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