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Laagri vs Tammeka Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:00

Laagri

PPG 1.46 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWW

UPCOMING

Tammeka

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 65% chance

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-16.5%0-23.9%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.2%1-111.1%1-26.7%1-32.7%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.9%2-19.5%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.5%3-15.5%3-23.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.4%4+-22.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 51.3% 1.95 -9.3%

Draw 24.2% 27.8% 3.60 -7.7%

Away win 29.3% 32.3% 3.10 -5.5%

Over 2.5 59.6% 66.7% 1.50 -10.6%

Over 3.5 36.4% 45.5% 2.20 -19.9%

BTTS 59.0% 66.7% 1.50 -11.5%

Home O1.5 49.9% 57.8% 1.73 -13.7%

Away O1.5 36.8% 45.5% 2.20 -19.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.0%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–2 6.7%

#4 2–0 7.9%

#5 1–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Laagri1.7

Tammeka1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LAAGRI · PPG 1.46

TAMMEKA · PPG 1.33

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

65%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.50 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Laagri (H) 46.5%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -9.3%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.7%

Tammeka (A) 29.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Laagri face Tammeka in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Laagri a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Tammeka 29%, so Laagri are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Laagri and 1.2 for Tammeka (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Laagri are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 1.33 for Tammeka.

Laagri vs Tammeka Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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