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Flora Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:00

Flora Tallinn

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLW

UPCOMING

Kalju Nomme

PPG 1.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-110.0%0-26.1%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.4%1-112.8%1-27.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.7%2-18.2%2-25.1%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.9%3-13.5%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.7% 40.8% 2.45 -5.2%

Draw 25.6% 30.8% 3.25 -10.1%

Away win 35.7% 40.0% 2.50 -10.8%

Over 2.5 53.8% 61.7% 1.62 -12.8%

Over 3.5 31.7% 40.0% 2.50 -20.8%

BTTS 55.7% 66.7% 1.50 -16.4%

Home O1.5 38.4% 50.0% 2.00 -23.2%

Away O1.5 36.8% 47.6% 2.10 -22.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.7%

H 39% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 10.4%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 0–1 10.0%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Flora Tallinn1.3

Kalju Nomme1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FLORA TALLINN · PPG 1.62

KALJU NOMME · PPG 1.92

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Flora Tallinn (H) 38.7%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -5.2%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -10.1%

Kalju Nomme (A) 35.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Flora Tallinn face Kalju Nomme in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flora Tallinn a 39% chance, the draw 26% and Kalju Nomme 36%, so Flora Tallinn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Flora Tallinn and 1.2 for Kalju Nomme (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flora Tallinn are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.92 for Kalju Nomme.

Flora Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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