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Paide vs FC Levadia Tallinn Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 11:30

Paide

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWW

UPCOMING

FC Levadia Tallinn

PPG 2.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 64% chance

Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-19.4%0-28.2%0-34.8%0-4+3.1%1 1-06.3%1-111.0%1-29.7%1-35.6%1-4+3.7%2 2-03.7%2-16.5%2-25.7%2-33.3%2-4+2.2%3 3-01.4%3-12.5%3-22.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.3% 21.7% 4.60 +20.9%

Draw 23.5% 25.6% 3.90 -5.0%

Away win 47.2% 63.7% 1.57 -25.9%

Over 2.5 59.7% 65.4% 1.53 -8.7%

Over 3.5 36.5% 44.4% 2.25 -17.9%

BTTS 60.7% 65.4% 1.53 -7.1%

Home O1.5 32.7% 30.8% 3.25 +6.3%

Away O1.5 47.9% 63.7% 1.57 -24.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob60.7%

A 47% / xG 1.2-1.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 2–1 6.5%

#4 0–2 8.2%

#5 0–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paide1.2

FC Levadia Tallinn1.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PAIDE · PPG 2.00

FC LEVADIA TALLINN · PPG 2.69

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

64%

DANGER

xG gap -0.58 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Paide (H) 29.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +20.9%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -5.0%

FC Levadia Tallinn (A) 47.2%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -25.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paide face FC Levadia Tallinn in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paide a 29% chance, the draw 24% and FC Levadia Tallinn 47%, so FC Levadia Tallinn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Paide and 1.8 for FC Levadia Tallinn (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paide are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.69 for FC Levadia Tallinn. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +27.4%.

Paide vs FC Levadia Tallinn Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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