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Lyn W vs Valerenga W Prediction— Norway - Toppserien

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 12:30

Lyn W

PPG 1.67 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Valerenga W

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-17.6%0-24.9%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.2%1-111.8%1-27.5%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.0%2-25.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.6%3-14.6%3-23.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.5%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.9% 21.7% 4.60 +78.9%

Draw 24.8% 27.8% 3.60 -6.4%

Away win 36.3% 63.7% 1.57 -43.0%

Over 2.5 60.1% 59.9% 1.67 +0.4%

Over 3.5 36.2% 39.7% 2.52 -8.8%

BTTS 59.4% 60.6% 1.65 -2.0%

Home O1.5 45.4% 31.1% 3.22 +46.2%

Away O1.5 36.8% 63.3% 1.58 -41.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -48.0%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.4%

H 39% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 0–0 6.0%

#4 1–2 7.5%

#5 1–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lyn W1.5

Valerenga W1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LYN W · PPG 1.67

VALERENGA W · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs Home GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Lyn W (H) 38.9%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +78.9%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -6.4%

Valerenga W (A) 36.3%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -43.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lyn W face Valerenga W in Norway - Toppserien on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lyn W a 39% chance, the draw 25% and Valerenga W 36%, so Lyn W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Lyn W and 1.3 for Valerenga W (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lyn W are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.33 for Valerenga W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +78.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Lyn W vs Valerenga W Prediction— Norway - Toppserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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