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Brann W vs Røa W Prediction— Norway - Toppserien

Matchday 13 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 16:00

Brann W

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWW

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Røa W

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 92.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-11.6%0-20.3%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.3%1-14.3%1-20.7%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.8%2-15.8%2-20.9%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-015.9%3-15.2%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-020.3%4+-16.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.2% 97.1% 1.03 -21.5%

Draw 16.2% 6.7% 15.00 +85.8%

Away win 7.6% 1.6% 61.00 +218.2%

Over 2.5 53.9% 82.0% 1.22 -34.2%

Over 3.5 33.7% 65.8% 1.52 -48.8%

BTTS 43.6% 34.5% 2.90 +26.4%

Home O1.5 65.1% 92.6% 1.08 -29.7%

Away O1.5 11.1% 6.7% 15.00 +39.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 34%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob43.6%

H 76% / xG 2.7-0.3 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 17.8%

#2 3–0 15.9%

#3 1–0 13.3%

#4 4–0 10.6%

#5 0–0 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brann W2.7

Røa W0.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 33.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BRANN W · PPG 2.33

RØA W · PPG 1.17

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.35 for Home, form 2.33 vs 1.17 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Brann W (H) 76.2%

ODDS 1.03 · IMPLIED 97.1% EV -21.5%

Draw 16.2%

ODDS 15.00 · IMPLIED 6.7% EV +85.8%

Røa W (A) 7.6%

ODDS 61.00 · IMPLIED 1.6% EV +218.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brann W face Røa W in Norway - Toppserien on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brann W a 76% chance, the draw 16% and Røa W 8%, so Brann W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Brann W and 0.3 for Røa W (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brann W are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.17 for Røa W. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +39.9%. This match finished 5-1.

Brann W vs Røa W Prediction— Norway - Toppserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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