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Rosenborg W vs Lyn W Prediction— Norway - Toppserien

Matchday 13 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 16:00

Rosenborg W

PPG 2.17 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Lyn W

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-19.1%0-24.8%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.9%1-112.7%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.3%2-18.9%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.9%3-14.1%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 71.4% 1.40 -34.3%

Draw 24.4% 23.8% 4.20 +1.5%

Away win 28.8% 17.2% 5.80 +40.2%

Over 2.5 53.9% 69.4% 1.44 -22.4%

Over 3.5 31.6% 48.3% 2.07 -34.6%

BTTS 54.7% 63.7% 1.57 -14.1%

Home O1.5 39.2% 74.1% 1.35 -47.1%

Away O1.5 34.3% 31.1% 3.22 +10.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 34%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 47% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 11.9%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 2–0 8.3%

#5 0–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rosenborg W1.4

Lyn W1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ROSENBORG W · PPG 2.17

LYN W · PPG 1.17

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.33, combined xG 2.46 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Rosenborg W (H) 46.9%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -34.3%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +1.5%

Lyn W (A) 28.8%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +40.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rosenborg W face Lyn W in Norway - Toppserien on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rosenborg W a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Lyn W 29%, so Rosenborg W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Rosenborg W and 1.1 for Lyn W (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rosenborg W are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.17 for Lyn W. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +10.4%. This match finished 3-2.

Rosenborg W vs Lyn W Prediction— Norway - Toppserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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