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Alberts JDFS vs Tukums B Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Regular Season - 2 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 11:00

Alberts JDFS

PPG 3.00 · HOME

6 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Tukums B

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=55.1%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-12.2%0-21.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.4%1 1-04.0%1-15.9%1-24.5%1-32.2%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.4%2-18.1%2-26.1%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.9%3-17.4%3-25.6%3-32.8%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-19.8%4+-27.4%4+-33.7%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.1% — — —

Draw 21.3% — — —

Away win 23.6% — — —

Over 2.5 66.8% — — —

Over 3.5 45.5% — — —

BTTS 63.4% — — —

Home O1.5 75.7% — — —

Away O1.5 44.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 15%

ROI -0.6%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-1

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.4%

H 55% / xG 2.7-1.5 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.1%

#2 3–1 7.4%

#3 1–1 5.9%

#4 2–2 6.1%

#5 3–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alberts JDFS2.7

Tukums B1.5

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.8% · O3.5 PROB 45.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ALBERTS JDFS · PPG 3.00

TUKUMS B · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=55.1%

Win probability 1X2

Alberts JDFS (H) 55.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tukums B (A) 23.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Alberts JDFS face Tukums B in Latvia - 1. Liga on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alberts JDFS a 55% chance, the draw 21% and Tukums B 24%, so Alberts JDFS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Alberts JDFS and 1.5 for Tukums B (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alberts JDFS are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.33 for Tukums B. This match finished 6-1.

Alberts JDFS vs Tukums B Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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