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Marupe vs RFS B Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 10:00

Marupe

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

RFS B

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 74.9% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-10.7%0-20.2%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.6%1-12.6%1-20.6%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-010.5%2-14.9%2-21.1%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.1%3-16.1%3-21.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-032.2%4+-114.9%4+-23.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.9% 74.1% 1.35 +1.1%

Draw 17.6% 22.7% 4.40 -13.5%

Away win 7.5% 15.2% 6.60 -30.3%

Over 2.5 63.9% 69.4% 1.44 -8.0%

Over 3.5 60.3% 50.0% 2.00 +20.6%

BTTS 47.5% 59.9% 1.67 -20.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 15%

ROI -0.6%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)3.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob47.5%

H 75% / xG 3.7-0.5 / O2.5 64% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 13.1%

#2 4–0 12.2%

#3 2–0 10.5%

#4 5–0 9.1%

#5 3–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marupe3.7

RFS B0.5

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 60.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MARUPE · PPG 2.00

RFS B · PPG 0.33

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.33) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Marupe (H) 74.9%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV +1.1%

Draw 17.6%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -13.5%

RFS B (A) 7.5%

ODDS 6.60 · IMPLIED 15.2% EV -30.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Marupe face RFS B in Latvia - 1. Liga on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marupe a 75% chance, the draw 18% and RFS B 8%, so Marupe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.7 for Marupe and 0.5 for RFS B (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marupe are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.33 for RFS B. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.6%. This match finished 1-4.

Marupe vs RFS B Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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