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Tukums B vs Smiltene Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 13:00

Tukums B

PPG 0.75 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Smiltene

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.4% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-11.2%0-20.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.2%1 1-03.0%1-14.1%1-22.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.6%2 2-05.0%2-16.8%2-24.7%2-32.2%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.6%3-17.6%3-25.3%3-32.4%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-010.9%4+-115.0%4+-210.3%4+-34.7%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.7% 65.4% 1.53 -5.6%

Draw 20.6% 24.4% 4.10 -9.3%

Away win 17.7% 22.2% 4.50 -12.2%

Over 2.5 73.4% 71.4% 1.40 +2.8%

Over 3.5 69.4% 51.3% 1.95 +35.3%

BTTS 63.0% 69.9% 1.43 -9.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 15%

ROI -0.6%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.0%

H 62% / xG 3.3-1.4 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.6%

#2 2–1 6.8%

#3 4–1 6.4%

#4 3–0 5.6%

#5 3–2 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tukums B3.3

Smiltene1.4

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.4% · O3.5 PROB 69.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TUKUMS B · PPG 0.75

SMILTENE · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.75) > Away POOR (0.25)

Win probability 1X2

Tukums B (H) 61.7%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -5.6%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -9.3%

Smiltene (A) 17.7%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tukums B face Smiltene in Latvia - 1. Liga on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tukums B a 62% chance, the draw 21% and Smiltene 18%, so Tukums B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Tukums B and 1.4 for Smiltene (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tukums B are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.25 for Smiltene. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +35.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Tukums B vs Smiltene Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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