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Super Nova II vs Valmiera Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Regular Season - 9 ·Tuesday, May 26, 2026, 17:00

Super Nova II

PPG 1.80 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Valmiera

PPG 2.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-16.6%0-26.2%0-33.9%0-4+2.9%1 1-05.1%1-19.6%1-29.1%1-35.8%1-4+4.2%2 2-03.7%2-17.0%2-26.7%2-34.2%2-4+3.1%3 3-01.8%3-13.4%3-23.3%3-32.1%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.7%4+-21.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.7% 30.3% 3.30 +7.9%

Draw 24.3% 25.0% 4.00 -1.7%

Away win 43.0% 57.1% 1.75 -24.8%

Over 2.5 62.3% 66.7% 1.50 -6.6%

Over 3.5 43.4% 45.5% 2.20 -4.5%

BTTS 59.7% 69.0% 1.45 -13.4%

Home O1.5 43.1% 43.9% 2.28 -1.7%

Away O1.5 56.6% 63.3% 1.58 -10.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 15%

ROI -0.6%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob59.7%

A 43% / xG 1.5-1.9 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 2–1 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Super Nova II1.5

Valmiera1.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SUPER NOVA II · PPG 1.80

VALMIERA · PPG 2.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs Home GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Super Nova II (H) 32.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +7.9%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -1.7%

Valmiera (A) 43.0%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -24.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Super Nova II face Valmiera in Latvia - 1. Liga on Tuesday, May 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Super Nova II a 33% chance, the draw 24% and Valmiera 43%, so Valmiera are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Super Nova II and 1.9 for Valmiera (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Super Nova II are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 2.40 for Valmiera. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.9%. This match finished 0-0.

Super Nova II vs Valmiera Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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