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Alberts JDFS vs Skanste Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 15:00

Alberts JDFS

PPG 3.00 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Skanste

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-14.1%0-23.5%0-32.0%0-4+1.3%1 1-04.7%1-18.2%1-27.1%1-34.1%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.8%2-18.3%2-27.2%2-34.1%2-4+2.6%3 3-03.2%3-15.6%3-24.8%3-32.8%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-14.5%4+-23.9%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 58.8% 1.70 -23.5%

Draw 22.9% 25.0% 4.00 -5.0%

Away win 32.1% 27.0% 3.70 +18.8%

Over 2.5 63.9% 66.7% 1.50 -4.2%

Over 3.5 51.7% 45.5% 2.20 +13.7%

BTTS 63.0% 71.4% 1.40 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 15%

ROI -0.6%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.0%

H 45% / xG 2.0-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 8.3%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 1–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alberts JDFS2.0

Skanste1.7

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 51.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ALBERTS JDFS · PPG 3.00

SKANSTE · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=45.0%

Win probability 1X2

Alberts JDFS (H) 45.0%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -23.5%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -5.0%

Skanste (A) 32.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +18.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alberts JDFS face Skanste in Latvia - 1. Liga on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alberts JDFS a 45% chance, the draw 23% and Skanste 32%, so Alberts JDFS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Alberts JDFS and 1.7 for Skanste (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alberts JDFS are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Skanste. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.8%. This match finished 4-1.

Alberts JDFS vs Skanste Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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