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Riga Mariners vs Valmiera Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:00

Riga Mariners

PPG 1.67 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Valmiera

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-17.6%0-27.6%0-35.0%0-4+3.9%1 1-04.9%1-19.7%1-29.6%1-36.4%1-4+5.0%2 2-03.1%2-16.2%2-26.2%2-34.1%2-4+3.2%3 3-01.3%3-12.6%3-22.6%3-31.7%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.6% 37.0% 2.70 -13.7%

Draw 25.1% 26.3% 3.80 -2.8%

Away win 46.3% 48.8% 2.05 -5.1%

Over 2.5 61.4% 69.4% 1.44 -11.6%

Over 3.5 41.2% 47.6% 2.10 -13.5%

BTTS 59.7% 70.4% 1.42 -15.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 15%

ROI -0.6%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob59.7%

A 46% / xG 1.3-2.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 7.6%

#4 1–3 6.4%

#5 2–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Riga Mariners1.3

Valmiera2.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 41.2%

Form & verdict PPG

RIGA MARINERS · PPG 1.67

VALMIERA · PPG 3.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Riga Mariners (H) 28.6%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -13.7%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -2.8%

Valmiera (A) 46.3%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Riga Mariners face Valmiera in Latvia - 1. Liga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Riga Mariners a 29% chance, the draw 25% and Valmiera 46%, so Valmiera are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Riga Mariners and 2.0 for Valmiera (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Riga Mariners are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 3.00 for Valmiera. This match finished 3-1.

Riga Mariners vs Valmiera Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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