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Riga Mariners vs Metta Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Matchday 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 14:30

Riga Mariners

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWW

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Metta

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWW

// Model verdict

Away 57% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+10.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-111.8%0-211.6%0-37.7%0-4+5.9%1 1-05.0%1-19.9%1-29.8%1-36.5%1-4+5.0%2 2-02.1%2-14.2%2-24.2%2-32.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-00.6%3-11.2%3-21.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.2% 30.3% 3.30 -31.9%

Draw 24.3% 25.6% 3.90 -3.1%

Away win 61.5% 55.6% 1.80 +10.7%

Over 2.5 52.6% 65.4% 1.53 -19.5%

Over 3.5 31.3% 45.7% 2.19 -31.4%

BTTS 51.6% 69.4% 1.44 -25.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -24.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob51.6%

A 62% / xG 0.8-2.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 11.6%

#2 1–1 9.9%

#3 0–1 11.8%

#4 1–2 9.8%

#5 0–3 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Riga Mariners0.8

Metta2.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.3%

Form & verdict PPG

RIGA MARINERS · PPG 2.00

METTA · PPG 3.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

57%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Riga Mariners (H) 14.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -31.9%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -3.1%

Metta (A) 61.5%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +10.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Riga Mariners face Metta in Latvia - 1. Liga on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Riga Mariners a 14% chance, the draw 24% and Metta 62%, so Metta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Riga Mariners and 2.0 for Metta (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Riga Mariners are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 3.00 for Metta. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.7%. This match finished 2-2.

Riga Mariners vs Metta Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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