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Leevon PPK vs JFK Ventspils Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 15:00

Leevon PPK

PPG 2.33 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

JFK Ventspils

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.8% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-11.7%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.9%1-15.3%1-22.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-08.9%2-18.1%2-23.6%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.1%3-18.2%3-23.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-014.7%4+-113.3%4+-26.0%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.8% 70.4% 1.42 -3.7%

Draw 22.4% 22.2% 4.50 +0.5%

Away win 9.7% 19.0% 5.25 -29.4%

Over 2.5 63.9% 66.7% 1.50 -4.2%

Over 3.5 55.7% 46.1% 2.17 +20.9%

BTTS 54.6% 58.8% 1.70 -7.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 15%

ROI -0.6%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 68% / xG 3.0-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.1%

#2 2–0 8.9%

#3 3–1 8.2%

#4 2–1✓ 8.1%

#5 4–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leevon PPK3.0

JFK Ventspils0.9

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 55.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LEEVON PPK · PPG 2.33

JFK VENTSPILS · PPG 0.33

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.33), Away POOR (0.33) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Leevon PPK (H) 67.8%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV -3.7%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +0.5%

JFK Ventspils (A) 9.7%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -29.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leevon PPK face JFK Ventspils in Latvia - 1. Liga on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leevon PPK a 68% chance, the draw 22% and JFK Ventspils 10%, so Leevon PPK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Leevon PPK and 0.9 for JFK Ventspils (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leevon PPK are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.33 for JFK Ventspils. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Leevon PPK vs JFK Ventspils Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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