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Riga FC B vs Marupe Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Regular Season - 8 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 10:00

Riga FC B

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Marupe

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.9% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-17.4%0-28.0%0-35.7%0-4+5.0%1 1-04.2%1-19.1%1-29.7%1-36.9%1-4+6.1%2 2-02.6%2-15.5%2-25.9%2-34.2%2-4+3.7%3 3-01.1%3-12.2%3-22.4%3-31.7%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.7% 33.9% 2.95 -19.8%

Draw 23.6% 27.8% 3.60 -9.0%

Away win 53.7% 51.3% 1.95 +4.7%

Over 2.5 61.9% 65.4% 1.53 -5.3%

Over 3.5 43.3% 44.4% 2.25 -2.6%

BTTS 59.7% 69.4% 1.44 -14.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 15%

ROI -0.6%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob59.7%

A 54% / xG 1.2-2.1 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.0%

#4 1–3 6.9%

#5 0–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Riga FC B1.2

Marupe2.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.9% · O3.5 PROB 43.3%

Form & verdict PPG

RIGA FC B · PPG 2.00

MARUPE · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Riga FC B (H) 22.7%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -19.8%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -9.0%

Marupe (A) 53.7%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +4.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Riga FC B face Marupe in Latvia - 1. Liga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Riga FC B a 23% chance, the draw 24% and Marupe 54%, so Marupe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Riga FC B and 2.1 for Marupe (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Riga FC B are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.75 for Marupe. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.7%. This match finished 0-4.

Riga FC B vs Marupe Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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